816355 Uncertainties in hydrological and ecosystem modelling (in Eng.)

Vorlesung und Übung
Vortragende/r (Mitwirkende/r)
Schulz, Karsten
Institut für Wasserwirtschaft, Hydrologie und konstruktiver Wasserbau (IWHW)
Angeboten im Semester
Wintersemester 2017/18
Unterrichts-/ Lehrsprachen


The course will cover the following topics:
Introduction into hydrological and ecosystem modelling concepts; the quality of observation - parameter and input data; mathematical concepts for describing uncertainties (probability theory, interval arithmetic, fuzzy sets), methods to propagate uncertainties (error propapgation, stochastic simulation, monte carlo methods); modell calibration; inverse parameter estimation; parameter and prediction uncertainty; „Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)“, Monte Carlo Markov Chain Methods; communication of uncertainties.

Inhaltliche Voraussetzungen (erwartete Kenntnisse)

It is expected that participant have some background in statistics, calculus and environmental systems. Experience in Excel and R will be advantageous for progressing in the practical parts of the course. The course is designed for students at the M.Sc. or PhD level with interest in ecosystem modelling.


After having finished the course, students should have understood the theoretical background of the methods and topics covered in the course and listed above. They should also be able to transfer these methods to other systems and problems. This will include evaluating the model complexity needed given the available objectives and data/information available. Also, students will be able to critically assess the quality of data and final model predictions.
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