816355 Uncertainties in hydrological and ecosystem modelling

Lecture and exercise
Semester hours
Lecturer (assistant)
Schulz, Karsten
Institute of Water Management, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering (IWHW)
Offered in
Wintersemester 2017/18
Languages of instruction


The course will cover the following topics:
- Introduction into hydrological and ecosystem modelling concepts;
- The quality of observations, parameter and input data;
- Mathematical concepts for describing uncertainties (probability theory, interval arithmetic, fuzzy sets);
- Methods to propagate uncertainties (error propapgation, stochastic simulation, monte carlo methods);
- Modell calibration, measures of goodness-of-fit;
- inverse parameter estimation;
- parameter and prediction uncertainty;
- „Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)“;
- Monte Carlo Markov Chain Methods;
- Communication of uncertainties.

Previous knowledge expected

It is expected that participant have some background in statistics, calculus and environmental systems. Experience in Excel and R will be advantageous for progressing in the practical parts of the course. The course is designed for students at the M.Sc. or PhD level with interest in ecosystem modelling.

Objective (expected results of study and acquired competences)

After having finished the course, students should have
- an understooding of the theoretical background of the methods and topics covered in the course and listed above;
- the ability to transfer these methods to other systems and problem areas; this will include evaluating the model complexity needed given the available objectives and data/information available;
- the ability to critically assess the quality of data and final model predictions.
You can find more details like the schedule or information about exams on the {boo_lva_seite_text -> f:link.external(target: '_blank', rel='noopener', uri: 'https://online.boku.ac.at/BOKUonline/wbLv.wbShowLVDetail?pStpSpNr=280741&pSpracheNr=2')}.