Quendler 2


Die Bodenkultur - Journal for Land Management, Food and Environment

E. Quendler:

Future Scenarios for the Agriculture – Results of an Expert Survey

Which future scenarios are defined for the Austrian Agriculture and how important is the small farm?

Summary

Future Austrian agriculture has been discussed currently. By employing scenario techniques five possible future scenarios (closing agricultural production, survival of intensive agriculture in advantaged production areas, urbanisation, modernisation of traditional small scale mixed (peasant) agriculture and multifunctional large scale agriculture) for Austrian Agriculture has been developed. Interviews of agrarian experts, concerning selected indicators made it possible to weight the scenarios on national and regional level. The differences between possible future scenarios and a basic scenario showed amongst other things that in all scenarios small farms are eminent. Modernisation of traditional small scale mixed (peasant) agriculture is the most appropriate development-scenario according to the questioning of agrarian experts. Regarding international conditions multifunctional large scale agriculture as well as combinations of scenarios (i. e. modernisation of traditional small scale mixed (peasant) agriculture and multifunctional large scale agriculture) are “good” future scenarios.

Key words: Austrian agriculture, future scenarios, scenario techniques, questioning of agrarian experts.